ONTD’s Oscar Post, week 12

On January 24th 2012, the nominations will be announced for the 84th Academy Awards. This year, we’ll try to do our own coverage of the changes from week to week, doing averages based on the opinions of Oscar bloggers around the web, looking into the gossip, rumors and smear campaigns that will start popping out soon enough, to come up with the names that are most likely to get the coveted nominations (last week’s post here).
This week we take a look at the aftershocks from the Globes and what they may have said about the state of the race.

Best Picture

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The polls closed Friday for the Oscar noms, and everything Globes related should be taken with a grain of salt. That said, a few things do seem clearer now – for example, the fact that the eventual final race in this category will probably come between The Artist and The Descendants. The longer list still has reserved spots for Hugo, Midnight in Paris and The Help (which could regain momentum after the SAGs, an award show where it should shine), but it’s hard to imagine any of them cracking the top spots. Meanwhile, War Horse and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo show up more and more as potential filler and nothing else, while The Tree of Life remains, sadly, largely ignored in the grand scheme of things.

CURRENT PREDICTIONS: The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, War Horse, Moneyball, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.

ALMOST THERE:Tree of Life, Bridesmaids.

While still not the most likely winner come Oscar night, Martin Scorsese’s chances and profile certainly benefitted from last night’s somewhat unexpected win. Him, Michel Hazanivicius, and Alexander Payne remain firmly as the frontrunners, with Woody Allen getting a late surge and Steven Spielberg in the run as a strong possibility.
Terrence Malick lost some ground after Tree of Life’s poor awards run, while love for The Help could end up improving the odds for helmer Tate Taylor, and Fincher shouldn’t be counted out, after a strong showing at the DGA’s.

CURRENT PREDICTIONS: Alexander Payne, The Descendants ; Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist; Martin Scorsese, Hugo; Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris; Steven Spielberg, War Horse.

ALMOST THERE: Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life; Tate Taylor; The Help.

by casualfriday20

The Best Actress race still consists of the same six names. Rooney Mara's chances seem more likely now that Dragon Tattoo earned an unexpected DGA nod for Fincher (indicating that now that the film has been more widely seen, it may receive more industry support), however, it is unclear who she would push out then between Glenn Close and Tilda Swinton. Tilda has earned all the precursor nominations and made the BAFTA longlist top 5, but her film is still seen as difficult and unlikely Academy fodder. Meanwhile, although the reviews for Albert Nobbs have been tepid at best, Glenn Close still has the SAG and Golden Globe nomination, as well as the passion project narrative. However, the actual race will probably turn into one between Viola Davis and Meryl Streep, with Michelle Williams perhaps having an outside shot. Davis won Critics Choice (and gave an extremely moving acceptance speech that could work in her favor), while Streep took the Drama Golden Globe. The popularity of The Help will probably result in a SAG victory for Davis, but either Streep, Williams, or Swinton could take BAFTA. Nonetheless, Best Actress this year will probably prove to be more of a nailbiter than in years past.

CURRENT PREDICTIONS: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady (The Weinstein Company); Viola Davis, The Help (Disney); Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs (Roadside Attractions); Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn (The Weinstein Company); Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin (Oscilloscope).

ALMOST THERE: Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo; Charlize Theron, Young Adult.

by casualfriday20

Meanwhile, after her victory at the Critics' Choice and Golden Globes, Octavia Spencer is now the early frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress. Chastain and Bejo are also locks for nominations, but now seem unlikely to actually win, unless love for the Artist proves to be even stronger than expected. The last two seem to be a contest among Janet McTeer, Melissa McCarthy, and Shailene Woodley. The former two received the crucial SAG nomination, and McCarthy was even in the BAFTA longlist top 5, but again, she has to overcome genre bias. Vanessa Redgrave still could have a very unlikely outside chance, although the fact that she couldn't even make the BAFTA longlist is puzzling.

CURRENT PREDICTIONS: Octavia Spencer, The Help (Disney); Jessica Chastain, The Help (Disney); Berenice Bejo, The Artist (The Weinstein Company); Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids (Universal); Shailene Woodley, The Descendants (Fox Searchlight).

ALMOST THERE:Janet Mcteer, Albert Nobbs; Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus.

by bulimia

Best Actor remains quite possibly the most consistent category of them all, with Clooney, Dujardin and Pitt as the top three contenders. Last night Clooney followed up his Critics Choice win with the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama continuing to keep hold of the frontrunner status. Whilst Jean Dujardin won the Globe for Actor in a Comedy/Musical in a cakewalk, cementing his win with a refreshingly charming speech. SAG will be the most telling as to whether the race will stay pretty much the same with Clooney up in front, or whether Brad Pitt can gain back some momentum. It's worth noting that neither actor has ever won an individual SAG Award. Rounding out the top five is Fassbender and DiCaprio with British veteran Gary Oldman vying for a final spot.

CURRENT PREDICTIONS: George Clooney, The Descendants (Fox Searchlight); Brad Pitt, Moneyball (Columbia Pictures); Jean Dujardin, The Artist (The Weinstein Company); Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar (Warner Bros. Pictures); Michael Fassbender, Shame (Fox Searchlight).

ALMOST THERE: Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy; Woody Harrelson, Rampart.

by bulimia

Again, no changes from last week as Christopher Plummer remains the favourite to win; with the only spoiler at this rate being Albert Brooks. Looking to follow their leading partners to the Kodak is Kenneth Branagh, going three-for-three in terms of precursor nominations and Jonah Hill for his first break into the drama genre with Moneyball. A non-start for Stephen Daldry's Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close and a luke-warm response to Young Adult suggest that Max von Sydow and Patton Oswalt are unlikely. It appears that our final line-up could be this, with Hugo's Ben Kingsley and Viggo Mortensen as possible spoilers.

CURRENT PREDICTIONS: Christopher Plummer, Beginners (Olympus Pictures/Focus Features); Albert Brooks, Drive (FilmDistrict); Kenneth Branagh, My week with Marilyn (The Weinstein Company); Nick Nolte, Warrior (Summit); Jonah Hill, Moneyball (Paramount Pictures).

ALMOST THERE: Max Von Sydow, Extremely loud and incredibly close; Ben Kingsley (Hugo).

by bulimia

In the words of Nicole Kidman: "Come and get it, Woody." Woody Allen remains the frontrunner for Best Original Screenplay, and if he were to win it would be his third win out of a staggering fifteen nominations. The line-up remains virtually the same, the only change being Diablo Cody's acerbic Young Adult script dropping out of the top five, making way for Asghar Farhadi's highly praised screenplay for A Separation, the Foreign Language film frontrunner.

CURRENT PREDICTIONS: Midnight in Paris (Woody Allen), The Artist (Michael Hazanavicius), Bridesmaids (Kristen Wiig & Annie Mumulo), Beginners (Mike Mills), A Separation (Asghar Farhadi).

ALMOST THERE: 50/50, Young Adult.

by bulimia

Oscar winner Steven Zaillian has a strong hold on this category with two scripts in Consideration: Moneyball (also written by Aaron Sorkin) and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, giving the category a darker edge. Out is Tim Roth's screenplay for Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, the film having received no guild nominations, nor high profile mentions outside of the BFCA. Widespread love for Hugo and The Help keep them in the conversation, despite issues some critics have with the screenplays. On the fringes is War Horse, whose status has been on a steady decline since its release and the meticulous script for Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy.

CURRENT PREDICTIONS: The Descendants (Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash), Moneyball (Steve Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin), The Help (Tate Taylor & Kathryn Stockett), Hugo (John Logan), The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (Steve Zaillian).

ALMOST THERE: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, War Horse.

by casualfriday20

In the Foreign Language Film category, A Separation would appear to be the runaway winner, but again, the Oscar Foreign Language category is notoriously difficult to predict, as evidenced by No Man's Land victory over Amelie in 2001 and The Secret in their Eyes' victory over both The White Ribbon AND A Prophet in 2009 (a total travesty IMO). There have also been whispers that the film might even need to executive committee to step in, in order to actually make the longlist. Aki Kaurismaki's Le Havre and Mexico's Miss Bala have also been well-received. Lebanon's Where Do We Go Now? won the Audience award at TIFF is also a strong possibility, although the buzz since then seems to have died.

CURRENT PREDICTIONS: A Separation (Iran), Le Havre (Finland), Where Do We Go Now? (Lebanon), In Darkness (Poland), Footnote (Israel)

ALMOST THERE:War Is Declared (France), Miss Bala (Mexico), Monsieur Lazhar (Canada).

by casualfriday20

The documentary nominations, much like the foreign language film nominations, are often noted for which films don't actually end up making the longlist. This year is no different, as Senna, Interrupters, and the Werner Herzog double feature of Cave of Forgotten Dreams and Into the Abyss, all are missing from it. Now, of those which are on the longlist, Project Nim seems like a frontrunner. The documentary, about a series of experiments with a chimpanzee, has been very well-received and director James Marsh had previously won for Man on Wire. Pina, Bill Cunningham: New York, and Buck have also all received very positive reviews and are likely nominees.

CURRENT PREDICTIONS: Project Nim, Paradise Lost 3, Pina, Bill Cunningham New York, Buck.

ALMOST THERE: We Were Here, Undefeated.

Even though it walked away as a winner on Sunday night, it’s unlikely that The Adventures of Tintin, which employs the controversial motion capture technology (source of never ending debate and scorn among animation experts and professionals), will take the big prize come Oscar night. Meanwhile, a couple of so far overlooked titles might surprise: both Winnie the Pooh and Kung Fu Panda 2 have had stronger critical success so far than some of the movies that are apparently ahead in the race (like Rio, for example).

CURRENT PREDICTIONS: The Adventures of Tintin (Amblin Studios), Rango (Blind Wink productions), Puss in Boots (Dreamworks), Rio (Blue Sky), Arthur Christmas (Sony Pictures Animation).

ALMOST THERE: Cars 2 , Winnie the Pooh, Kung Fu Panda 2.

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• Golden Globes Coverage: Golden Globes Weekend Party Circuit: AFI Lunch, Paramount, LA Film Critics, Film Independent, BAFTA, Arrivals, Ontd’s coverage part 1 ,part 2 & the Vogue Best Dressed.

• An analysis of the NBR Awards

• Also, a Behind the scenes look at the Critics Choice Awards.

• The ACE Eddie awards nominations are out.

• After the crowded December release of Oscar bait, we have the usual extreme dip in the dumping ground that is January. Here, a look at the worst recent january releases.

• For our consideration: The Snickering curse surrounding Shame.

• Time out talks to Spielberg about War Horse.

• The charming Dujardin tries to impress Robert DeNiro, with mixed results.

• Ebert weighs in the Oscar Race.

• Mark Harris handicaps the Screenplay race, and his previous analysis of "Known Unknowns".

• Meanwhile, /Film takes a look at the Costume Design and Makeup possibilities.