Best Picture
Contenders: La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, Fences, Silence;
Likely Bets: Loving, Jackie, Arrival
Also in contention: Lion, Hidden Figures, Sully
It’s been a consistent story of awards season for a few years now: around september a hierarchy of sorts is established, with the frontrunner, the challenger and the mysterious unknown all taking their positions. One movie comes out of the festivals pretty much crowned as a sure bet, only to spend the next few months being slowly deconstructed and challenged by either pundits interested in making the race seem more competitive or passionate supporters of other films, and a third group holding out for high profile projects that have yet to screen but “could take it all” (even though they never do). Recently, we’ve had success stories coming out of the first two camps (12 years a Slave, Spotlight, The Artist were all early lauded films that managed to hold on to their leads to the end, while “Birdman” and “The King’s Speech” both outpaced films that had more critical acclaim and stronger positions at the start of the season), while the third remains as the resting place for underwhelming disappointments that never live up to the hype.
Now, with a few of the previously unknown pieces finally screening to varied levels of acclaim, we’re getting a fuller picture that looks something like this: La La Land holding strong as the frontrunner, Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight making waves at critics and indie type awards, but seemingly lacking the populist (among academy members) appeal of previous fare that managed to upset the frontrunners, and still embargoed but already much talked about films getting written off as stagey (Fences), seemingly not posing much of a threat to La La Land. Silence is getting great early word of mouth, and gets to live a little longer in possible threat territory. Jackie, Loving and Arrival are all well positioned for nominations based on acclaim and/or box office success.
Now, with a few of the previously unknown pieces finally screening to varied levels of acclaim, we’re getting a fuller picture that looks something like this: La La Land holding strong as the frontrunner, Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight making waves at critics and indie type awards, but seemingly lacking the populist (among academy members) appeal of previous fare that managed to upset the frontrunners, and still embargoed but already much talked about films getting written off as stagey (Fences), seemingly not posing much of a threat to La La Land. Silence is getting great early word of mouth, and gets to live a little longer in possible threat territory. Jackie, Loving and Arrival are all well positioned for nominations based on acclaim and/or box office success.
Best Director
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buzzybhn
buzzybhnContenders: Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Denzel Washington (Fences), Martin Scorsese (Silence)
Also in contention: Pablo Larrain (Jackie), Jeff Nichols (Loving), Dennis Villeneuve (Arrival)
Damien Chazelle, Kenneth Lonergan and Barry Jenkins all seem to be locks. Martin Scorsese is Martin Scorsese so I’m assuming he’ll get nominated. And I’d say Denis Villeneuve and Denzel Washington will be trying to get the 5th spot for Best Director. Pablo Larrain and Jeff Nichols should pray to whatever god they believe in, cause right now they’re longshots. Recent critics groups also seem to have solidified the first 3 men as nominees, but Chazelle still looks like the most likely winner, based on La La Land’s frontrunner status and the still somewhat uncertainty of Silence will play out.
Best Actress
Contenders:Emma Stone (La La Land), Natalie Portman (Jackie), Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Ruth Negga (Loving) and Amy Adams (Arrival)
Also in contention: Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins), Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)
Usually derided as “thin”, best actress looks like one of the most stacked categories of the year (if not as competitive as some would make it seem). We have Emma Stone, Natalie Portman and Annette Bening as the frontrunners, and the rest fighting for the two remaining spots. Eternal bridesmaid Amy Adams and Isabelle Huppert just got needed boosts from critics, and Ruth Negga is still receiving a lot of pundit love, even if her subdued film looks weaker and weaker as the season goes on and it fails too rally much enthusiasm around it. Coming in late in the season, Hidden Figure’s Taraji P. Henson could get into the race depending on how well the movie plays, and Meryl Streep should never be counted out, even in a crowded year.
For the final win, honestly, it’s Emma’s to lose.
For the final win, honestly, it’s Emma’s to lose.
Best Actor
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ceilidh_ann
ceilidh_annContenders: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Denzel Washington (Fences), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Tom Hanks (Sully)
Also in contention: Andrew Garfield (Silence/Hacksaw Ridge), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
While the acting categories tend to be the most watched and competitive elements of the awards season, 2016 presents a few challenges as the lead and supporting actor spots are more open to change than usual. This is more of a problem in the leading actor category, where it's almost a two man race between Casey Affleck and Denzel Washington with the other three spaces up for grabs, so it wouldn’t be a stretch to imagine two strongly reviewed films with well placed actresses in the race could carry their also praised male co-leads (Gosling and Edgerton). That said, while the opposite happens quite frequently (i.e. Felicity Jones getting in with Redmayne and the movie), it’s harder for actors to break through like that, which could ultimately open up spots for Andrew Garfield, Tom Hanks comeback and indie favorite Viggo Mortensen.
For the win, the odds right now are in Casey’s favor, but Denzel could win his third with a well played campaign.
For the win, the odds right now are in Casey’s favor, but Denzel could win his third with a well played campaign.
Best Supporting Actress
Contenders: Viola Davis (Fences), Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women)
Also in contention: Janelle Monáe (Hidden Figures)
It’s All About Viola. While her placement here has raised some eyebrows and screams of category fraud, it’s not that cut and dry. This role has been placed as both supporting and lead for consideration at the Tony’s during different stagings of the play, and early word all seems to imply Viola Davis’s screen time is closer to the original supporting role run the play had. White Michelle Williams and Naomie Harris are both strong contenders certain to get nominated, leaving 2 spots open, that could go to a big name like Nicole Kidman, consistent supporting player Greta Gerwig or newcomer Janelle Monáe.
Best Supporting Actor
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ceilidh_ann
ceilidh_annContenders: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Dev Patel (Lion), Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
Also in contention: Liam Neeson (Silence), Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins), Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures)
Supporting actor could be one of the surprises of the season. It'll come down to a good campaign and some real voter passion for each performance. Moonlight is easily the most talked about film of the year in terms of critical acclaim, currently doing gangbusters with the critics’ circle awards - distributor A24’s impeccable work this season to bring Barry Jenkins’ film to those who need to see it also should be mentioned - and meaty supporting roles like Mahershala Ali’s (and his co-star Naomie Harris) can usually end up as the focal point, a way to reward a film with fewer chances at the big categories. Mahershala’s had a busy year, from Luke Cage to Hidden Figures, and the Academy do love a hard working star du jour (they tend to be white women though, so this is a welcome change). While Chris Pine and Ben Foster put in two of their best performances in Hell or High Water - great year for The Best Chris - it's old favourite Jeff Bridges that shines in a role essentially tailor-made for him. The Academy loves an old favourite and why not reward one while he’s doing some of his best work?
Hidden Figures is getting a major push, and Kevin Costner’s role is fictional, but still has plenty of potential for inspiring, awards clip friendly speeches and a reminder of his more prominent days. Plus there would be nothing more depressingly Hollywood than a film about women of color giving the awards attention to the white dudes. Lion sees Harvey putting all his eggs in the inspirational based on a true story basket - Dev Patel, who is charming and pounding the proverbial pavements (and got really hot), seems the safest bet for any successes, and while Weinstein may not be the omnipotent beast of the Oscar season he was in the 90s, he does have one thing he never used to – blatant desperation.
Rounding up, Lucas Hedges has received his fair share of passionate acclaim. Where Hedges’ chances may fall apart are in his age, and Liam Neeson seems to be getting good word of mouth for his performance, but it’s been tellingly more subdued than similarly embargoed performances from the Fences cast - speaking of which, if Scott Rudin manages to get a sweep for Fences, Stephen Mckinley-Henerson could easily make the cut, but it’s less secure than the nominations for Washington and Davis. Finally, don’t discount Hugh Grant, who has been working it thus far.
Hidden Figures is getting a major push, and Kevin Costner’s role is fictional, but still has plenty of potential for inspiring, awards clip friendly speeches and a reminder of his more prominent days. Plus there would be nothing more depressingly Hollywood than a film about women of color giving the awards attention to the white dudes. Lion sees Harvey putting all his eggs in the inspirational based on a true story basket - Dev Patel, who is charming and pounding the proverbial pavements (and got really hot), seems the safest bet for any successes, and while Weinstein may not be the omnipotent beast of the Oscar season he was in the 90s, he does have one thing he never used to – blatant desperation.
Rounding up, Lucas Hedges has received his fair share of passionate acclaim. Where Hedges’ chances may fall apart are in his age, and Liam Neeson seems to be getting good word of mouth for his performance, but it’s been tellingly more subdued than similarly embargoed performances from the Fences cast - speaking of which, if Scott Rudin manages to get a sweep for Fences, Stephen Mckinley-Henerson could easily make the cut, but it’s less secure than the nominations for Washington and Davis. Finally, don’t discount Hugh Grant, who has been working it thus far.
Best Animated Feature
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sandstorm
sandstormContenders: Zootopia, Moana, Kubo and the Two Strings, Your Name, Finding Dory
Also in contention: The Red Turtle, My Life As a Courgette, Sing
This has been an almost bulletproof year for animation. Zootopia (Winner of the 2016 Hollywood Animation Awards) and Moana are definitely scoring nominations. The stop motion in Kubo and The Two Strings (Winner of Best Animated Feature from The National Board of Review) also make it guaranteed. A spot usually goes to a non-American animation company, possibly the highly praised Red Turtle or Your Name.
The fifth spot? Finding Dory is the most likely winner, even though the sequel is being heralded as “Fine.” compared to the “Amazing” and “Timely” original stories from WDAS this year. Dreamworks’ may also have its fate up in the air. Trolls was a charming flash in the pan, and Kung Fu Panda 3, while continuing the high standards of the franchise, is yet another sequel, and still falls short of the other guaranteed nominees. So for the 5th spot, that MPAS and WDAS love affair might win out in the end.
The fifth spot? Finding Dory is the most likely winner, even though the sequel is being heralded as “Fine.” compared to the “Amazing” and “Timely” original stories from WDAS this year. Dreamworks’ may also have its fate up in the air. Trolls was a charming flash in the pan, and Kung Fu Panda 3, while continuing the high standards of the franchise, is yet another sequel, and still falls short of the other guaranteed nominees. So for the 5th spot, that MPAS and WDAS love affair might win out in the end.
third time's the charm? I tried posting this yesterday but think I messed up the second time after trying to fix the cut
Sources: GoldDerby | HWAwards | NBR awards
